Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c1e12bf927c0cbd8b2ce918d93f930e767435cece0ea624bcf40fc541e8062b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 12,303$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,518$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.31 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 1,388$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 9c | 909$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 72c | 833.98$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.86 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 644.89$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 515.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 24c | 420.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 10c | 333.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 327.7$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 38c | 300.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 283.52$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 19c | 278.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 248.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 209.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 200.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 19c | 181.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 166$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 76c | 131.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 76c | 130.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 105.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 16c | 88.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 25c | 76.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 69.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 68.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 38c | 53.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 77c | 52.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 46.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 36.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 62c | 31.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 26.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 66c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 79c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.