Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e40bebf6b3402793fc665a67d6b9ae8b6e4d886307b9e56723610c56ca9a823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,472$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.45 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 2,206$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 1,896$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.16 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 30c | 1,369$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 1c | 1,183$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 78c | 882.4$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.02 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 603.34$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked No | 74c | 569.75$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 551.28$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 438.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 396.67$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 260.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 220.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 71c | 211.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 199.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 199$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 189.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 165.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 24c | 164.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 22c | 153.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 72c | 152.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 143.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 18c | 131.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 130.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 117.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 28c | 115.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 113.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 113.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 18c | 104.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 100.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 20c | 98.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 19c | 94.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 32c | 92.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 89.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 32c | 86.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 81.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 77.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 73.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 72.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 66.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 65.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 17c | 65.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 64.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 18c | 61.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 67c | 51.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 47.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 47.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 45.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…6663backed Yes | 32c | 40.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 76c | 37.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e92…ad5bbacked No | 72c | 33.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 31.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 76c | 30.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 78c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…2d63backed No | 70c | 20.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 75c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.