Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5978e45f8060b52d6dda06ca1ec11ebe79d27b4271a53abad65ba319697bd40c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 47c | 2,313$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.36 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,380$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,095$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 802.33$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 30c | 686.82$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.54 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 566.5$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 548.57$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 497.86$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 447.61$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 392.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 352$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 344.45$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 307.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 304.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.79 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 279.39$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 40c | 242$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 236.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 207.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 37c | 200.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 185$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 164.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 143.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 44c | 131.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 20c | 128.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 125.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 121.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 21c | 119.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 110.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 107$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 43c | 106.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 38c | 105.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 36c | 104.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 101.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 99.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 97.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 32c | 93.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 79c | 86.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 85.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 33c | 83.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 83.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 36c | 80.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 36c | 70.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 44c | 70.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 70.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 52c | 60.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 61c | 60.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 43c | 55.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 55.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 53.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 63c | 51.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 47.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 80c | 42.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 36c | 40.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 40.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 45c | 39.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 25c | 39.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 38.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 37.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 47c | 33.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 32.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0331backed No | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 30.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 40c | 30.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 29.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 59c | 29.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 25.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 59c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 43c | 24.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 64c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 23.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 22.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…bc6dbacked No | 45c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 48c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 56c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.