TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes47c2,313$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.3631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c1,380$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.771,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes58c1,095$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.871947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c802.33$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.152,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes30c686.82$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.5417536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c566.5$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.465,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes45c548.57$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.868,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No57c497.86$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.5671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c447.61$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c392.82$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.564,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No55c352$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.182,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No50c344.45$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.581,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No10c307.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.064,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No54c304.93$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.791,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c279.39$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.895,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13036150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No40c242$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.241,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c236.75$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes68c207.6$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No37c200.8$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3657948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c185$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.795,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No44c164.57$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.422,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No57c160$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.21,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No35c143.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.764,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No44c131.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No20c128.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c127.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.642,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No65c125.36$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.314,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No17c121.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.491,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No21c119.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.121,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No50c110.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes57c107$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No43c106.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.731,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No38c105.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No53c105$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No36c104.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No43c101.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.156,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.55538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No54c99.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.991,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes29c97.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.581,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No48c95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No32c93.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7733654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes79c86.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.087634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c85.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.714,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No33c83.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2917747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No57c83.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.162,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No36c80.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.121,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.144,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No36c70.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No44c70.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2935344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes43c70.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.241,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8174…be40backed No52c60.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.513043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes61c60.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5113588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.29053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.83,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No43c55.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1328163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No21c55.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.492,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No50c53.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5344366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes63c51.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0325954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.526256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbccf…95e1backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No46c47.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.821,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes80c42.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b3…b220backed Yes41c42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.784420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-9.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48c8…4ccabacked No49c40.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No36c40.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3818142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No70c40.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.281,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes45c39.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.742147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No25c39.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.042,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No57c38.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No51c37.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1638860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445f…cc13backed Yes34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.956540%26 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No47c33.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.821,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No72c32.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0526458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x497f…0331backed No63c31.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick63cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes42c30.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9154335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes40c30.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.131,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c29.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.781,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c29.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.543,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes59c29.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9152446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c25.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes59c24.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.288215.9%13 W · 69 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x852d…f63abacked No43c24.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.572277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes64c24.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7430849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No60c23.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.281,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c22.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.093,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x530a…bc6dbacked No45c22.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes55c21.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.641,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No48c21.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes56c21.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3594552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes56c21.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.433,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes74c21.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5940871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.415961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.