Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c55ba5ce9004decb1ad216fede22bc4821d944ddac2433884c7704c8d76999d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 43c | 533.15$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 308.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.68 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 47c | 219.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 202.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 74c | 199.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 182.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 157.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 19c | 156.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 61c | 130.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 126.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 122.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 100.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 95.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 87.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 21c | 83.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 45c | 83.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 20c | 79.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 29c | 74.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 70.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 18c | 66.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 60.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 60.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 60.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 73c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 37c | 55.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 54.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 24c | 53.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 53.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 53.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 26c | 53.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 35c | 49.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 48.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 43.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 36.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 33.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 32.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 30.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed No | 78c | 30.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 21.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 19.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 18.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 75c | 18.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 17.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 14.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 80c | 12.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.