NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c84528bd1227f8f0735ded15a87ec9b0c61cdef92ac66fda8a4b0a514c8f818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 55c | 7,658$4,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,435.68 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 6,515$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked Over | 49c | 1,505$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.3 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 51c | 1,124$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.94 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,117$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.57 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 50c | 1,019$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.74 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 520.57$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.46 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 473.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 456$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 47c | 440$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 45c | 430.2$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 44c | 414.66$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 52c | 233.82$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…6177backed Under | 51c | 161.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 46c | 156.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…8eeabacked Over | 50c | 155.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 51c | 142.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Over | 45c | 136$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 104.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4e5fbacked Under | 55c | 85.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 55c | 79.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…8db8backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 47c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 55c | 19.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 329 | 57.4%189 W · 140 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jamal Shead: Points O/U 5.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Raptors vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.