NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x938360c8077acb1e79f9a08dfd0d794fc3ba78b5e96f07f24a9fba54042491d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 52c | 23,569$12,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,314.54 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 15,380$7,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,382.62 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,586$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Over | 52c | 3,550$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 52c | 2,669$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.88 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…b283backed Over | 52c | 2,242$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.89 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 52c | 1,942$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.05 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.07 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.84 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 8c | 717.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…d1b9backed Under | 45c | 675.91$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.75 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 53c | 578.21$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.28 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 55c | 525.94$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 438.55$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 184.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 130.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 39c | 123.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 188 | 50.5%95 W · 93 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 57c | 117.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Over | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 49c | 79.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Under | 45c | 76.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…a2cdbacked Over | 51c | 68.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Over | 54c | 58.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 45c | 54.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 67c | 41.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Under | 43c | 38.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 54c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 51c | 36.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 36c | 36.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Under | 45c | 34.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…9e46backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 27.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 49c | 23.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a73…de17backed Over | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 55c | 22.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…d196backed Under | 62c | 19.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 125 | 40.8%51 W · 74 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jamal Shead: Points O/U 5.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Raptors vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.