Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1caa85425bdf13cb616188a9e0d366d7ef15ca81d171aa5c2a1475652d03caad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 43c | 1,591$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.4 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,083$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.72 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 736.61$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 480.81$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.15 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 474.86$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 398.51$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 18c | 324.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 261.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 258.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 53c | 248.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 247.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 144.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 137.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 38c | 130.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 130.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 108.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 107.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 100.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 99.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 54c | 97.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 95.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 88.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 78c | 76.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 26c | 75.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 26c | 75.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 72.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 71.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 64.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 57c | 60.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 58.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed Yes | 38c | 54.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 50.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 50.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 43.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 33c | 43.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 39.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 34.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 34.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 36c | 32.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 42c | 24.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 21.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 64c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.