TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes41c1,562$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.7831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c1,422$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.741,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c706.02$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.238,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes27c439$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.4789544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No73c372.3$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.532,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1892,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c284.07$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.616,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c280.01$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c247.5$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.975,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No34c247.1$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.214,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No58c236.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.282,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No7c230$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes40c215.84$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No62c202$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.512,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ec…3adfbacked No8c178.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.212218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes40c175$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.651,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c165.76$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.343,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c162.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.13,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No65c159.95$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.971,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No55c155.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.245162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No10c151.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.774,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c114.24$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed Yes39c107.12$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6412052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c104$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.693,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6472837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6317255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes38c98.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.991,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No65c98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1670148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes33c92.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.131,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No63c92.43$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.784,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes67c85.58$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5716532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f2…ef25backed Yes34c83.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.833351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No62c82.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2157948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes28c78.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.451,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes37c73.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5330332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No60c71.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3190555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.39,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No18c67.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.182,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes34c65.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.388215.9%13 W · 69 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No59c60.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.631,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.411027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No67c59.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes33c59.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4031936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No71c56.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed Yes31c54.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.773161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes38c52.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.171,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes59c52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3420438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No58c50.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.228163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2f0…35f7backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+48%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2355954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2943559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes37c49.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes29c49.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.111,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No63c48.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0726256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No70c42.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c42.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.993,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No49c42.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.872,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c40.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.225935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes41c34.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2148743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c34.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.355,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.025,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes59c33.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No65c33.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8326458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.564,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7689…8317backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.744,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c29.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.781,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No67c29.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9821264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c29.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes40c28.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.067835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c26.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No65c23.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0452758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c22.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c22.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.14,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No66c15.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.317361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.