Champions League · resolved market
Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d405d21c3d391b787f0f8aa6a1c562b202a57c036d5e4c8855252cf1aca5161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 11c | 51,000$5,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,609.99 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…4347backed Yes | 15c | 5,434$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 286 | 43.7%125 W · 161 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 12c | 4,455$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.58 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 11c | 2,552$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.74 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811e…8733backed Yes | 15c | 2,440$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +281%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 20c | 2,440$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 13c | 1,574$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 42c | 1,530$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 978.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Yes | 23c | 882.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes | 12c | 841.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +183.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 67c | 690.02$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.05 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 10c | 690$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 12c | 650$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 288 | 40.3%116 W · 172 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 11c | 532$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 452$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 12c | 440.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 24c | 416.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…5db7backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 8c | 396.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Yes | 12c | 316.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed No | 78c | 260$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 12c | 246.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…7fddbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 13c | 208$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed No | 79c | 195.24$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 14c | 175.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa468…816ebacked Yes | 12c | 149.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Yes | 29c | 137.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…4172backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 11c | 123.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…8742backed Yes | 12c | 109.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…ede8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 12c | 99.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 23c | 95.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 13c | 92.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked No | 77c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16?this page
- Will Real Madrid vs. Olympique Marseille end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.