Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d790b90e80da52acf7a5a659e74436fb03b347d5107701fdf214e12d688325a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Salt Lakeof Los Angeles FC, Real Salt Lake
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Los Angeles FC | 38c | 9,565$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.05 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Real Salt Lake | 56c | 4,998$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.92 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Salt Lake | 72c | 4,090$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.32 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles FC | 18c | 4,009$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.47 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Real Salt Lake | 66c | 1,970$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.74 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Real Salt Lake | 66c | 1,072$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.94 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Los Angeles FC | 40c | 788$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.04 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Real Salt Lake | 73c | 757.15$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.83 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles FC | 26c | 416.52$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Real Salt Lake | 71c | 313.58$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Los Angeles FC | 37c | 187.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Los Angeles FC | 13c | 151.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Real Salt Lake | 30c | 143$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Real Salt Lake | 76c | 142.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked Los Angeles FC | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Real Salt Lake | 63c | 105.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Real Salt Lake | 80c | 102.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Real Salt Lake | 75c | 97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Real Salt Lake | 64c | 87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Los Angeles FC | 27c | 82.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Los Angeles FC | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Real Salt Lake | 70c | 66.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Real Salt Lake | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Real Salt Lake | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Real Salt Lake | 65c | 52.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Los Angeles FC | 30c | 51.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Los Angeles FC | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Los Angeles FC | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Real Salt Lake | 72c | 41.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Real Salt Lake | 74c | 41.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Real Salt Lake | 66c | 27.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Real Salt Lake | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Real Salt Lake | 66c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Los Angeles FC | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Real Salt Lake | 69c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Real Salt Lake | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.