MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc1abaf9031b6333412922e0aeb09160d1a2745f33d779d7ff4586cfee75689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 43c | 531.4$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.4 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 51c | 502.08$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed No | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 52c | 433.14$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed No | 59c | 265.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Yes | 48c | 242.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Yes | 48c | 240.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 44c | 188.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 55c | 145.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed No | 58c | 129.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Yes | 49c | 108.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 50c | 107.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 48c | 73.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked Yes | 48c | 61.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Yes | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 40c | 45.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked No | 54c | 28.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Soxthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.