Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dcdeb8e7688783d9222d4aa930a4035063fb754003605678eb2841e8a00213d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 4c | 523.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 57c | 349.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 34c | 342.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 47c | 297.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 49c | 285.34$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 20c | 205.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 185$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 180.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 28c | 172$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 49c | 154.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 71c | 138.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 45c | 137.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 51c | 135.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 114$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 105.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 54c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 97.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 86.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 42c | 72.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 68.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 72c | 60.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 72c | 58.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 49c | 57.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 42c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 47c | 55.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 53.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 46c | 52.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 50c | 52.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 52.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 51.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 37c | 45.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 54c | 44.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 41.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 40.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 37.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 36.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 34.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 42c | 32.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 30.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 51c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.