Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1de3a4a86f80db1b59f62c4e18cb2ccad634bc9f33889a89726051febb69f094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 27c | 5,109$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.18 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked Under | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 74c | 4,054$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.05 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 13c | 3,385$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 17c | 1,693$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.19 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 27c | 1,436$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 26c | 1,023$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 13c | 686.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 26c | 493.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 9c | 454.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 26c | 446.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 23c | 404.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 26c | 388.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 382.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 9c | 227.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 26c | 191$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 8c | 181.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x347d…098abacked Under | 80c | 166.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 8c | 159.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 73c | 159.4$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Under | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…16b7backed Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 73c | 75.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Under | 71c | 61.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 73c | 41.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 73c | 25.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…5847backed Under | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe1…52d2backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 73c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.