Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x865b83c23429dea07d03c4d48aa2b56d6033225d943a31419725931f1cecb8c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof AS Roma, SS Lazio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AS Roma | 27c | 3,194$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.46 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed SS Lazio | 62c | 2,300$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.89 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed AS Roma | 38c | 1,513$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.33 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed SS Lazio | 62c | 1,234$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.31 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed SS Lazio | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed SS Lazio | 62c | 1,022$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed SS Lazio | 7c | 713.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AS Roma | 49c | 596.49$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.07 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed SS Lazio | 60c | 456.08$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.64 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed SS Lazio | 63c | 420.78$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.59 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked AS Roma | 37c | 402.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.72 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed SS Lazio | 67c | 331.89$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.57 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked AS Roma | 37c | 322.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked SS Lazio | 60c | 314.18$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed SS Lazio | 67c | 300.48$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.79 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked SS Lazio | 63c | 299.93$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.95 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked AS Roma | 39c | 260$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed AS Roma | 40c | 232.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed SS Lazio | 61c | 205.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed AS Roma | 25c | 200.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.91 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked AS Roma | 44c | 194.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed SS Lazio | 62c | 192$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed AS Roma | 39c | 185$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…e7e7backed AS Roma | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked SS Lazio | 62c | 175.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed AS Roma | 58c | 166$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed SS Lazio | 64c | 156.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed AS Roma | 37c | 155.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed AS Roma | 38c | 143.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AS Roma | 37c | 130.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed SS Lazio | 58c | 104.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked SS Lazio | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed AS Roma | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked AS Roma | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SS Lazio | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked SS Lazio | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed AS Roma | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed AS Roma | 41c | 94.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed AS Roma | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AS Roma | 34c | 75.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked AS Roma | 23c | 75.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked SS Lazio | 62c | 72.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked AS Roma | 36c | 67.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed SS Lazio | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked AS Roma | 36c | 55.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked AS Roma | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed SS Lazio | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed SS Lazio | 62c | 42.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed AS Roma | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed AS Roma | 38c | 36.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed SS Lazio | 70c | 34.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed AS Roma | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed AS Roma | 37c | 32.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…f4d2backed AS Roma | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed SS Lazio | 65c | 24.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked SS Lazio | 65c | 24.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed SS Lazio | 63c | 24.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked SS Lazio | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked SS Lazio | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed SS Lazio | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked SS Lazio | 77c | 14.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.