AI · resolved market
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https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e03b7563ef3603caeea00fbaa25216925d9ca0e90c824472a7d893d845c68a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,366$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 16c | 3,517$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.46 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 2,648$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.41 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 630$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 13c | 562.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 19c | 499$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 17c | 489.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 14c | 397.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 350.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 14c | 321$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed No | 76c | 294.86$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 262.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…e01fbacked Yes | 16c | 225.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 18c | 206$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 13c | 149.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 17c | 102.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…876cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…ddc1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…fb11backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 75c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.