Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e2ec57b73d0c2579baecc70ce68534560718a3d33ab507e5c24eff5a44e2779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 19c | 1,395$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.48 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 33c | 901.13$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 761.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 569.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 5c | 540$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 24c | 375.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 315.51$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 280.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 6c | 244.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 179.44$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 17c | 179.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 26c | 124.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 18c | 105.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 104.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 98.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 95.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 74c | 94.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 85.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 26c | 82.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 69.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 30c | 62.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 68c | 59.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 30c | 56.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 51.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 79c | 49.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 79c | 48.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 60c | 36.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 28.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 78c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 79c | 17.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 4°C or below on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.