Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1683cb2b7ff1f62a2ee96fbbebc5b86ddb5b642598c343e5ae44964ada0b394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 60c | 1,156$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.74 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…66d8backed Yes | 69c | 1,017$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 62c | 999.99$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.77 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 725.29$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 35c | 699.6$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.25 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 484.35$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 62c | 482.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 29c | 462.86$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 32c | 457.54$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 429$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 427.61$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…8dadbacked No | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 381.93$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 360.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 7c | 318.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed No | 37c | 272.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 67c | 242.63$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 234.04$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 39c | 227.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 36c | 218.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 53c | 197$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 72c | 195.21$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 66c | 191.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 65c | 180.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 40c | 180.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 167.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 39c | 162.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 70c | 158.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 42c | 156.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 66c | 148.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 23c | 148$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 145.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 124$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 113.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 110.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 106.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 104.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 38c | 102.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 35c | 100.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbb…54e9backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 97.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 61c | 88.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 36c | 87.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 86.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 69c | 83.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 64c | 69.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 33c | 63.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 56.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 22c | 55.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 54.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 38c | 51.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 45c | 51.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…fa2bbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…686ebacked Yes | 61c | 48.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 35c | 47.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 46c | 45.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 62c | 44.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 30c | 43.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 37c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 38.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 62c | 37.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 35c | 37.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 70c | 36.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 70c | 36.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 31c | 35.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 67c | 32.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…fab9backed No | 36c | 30.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…fc52backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 56c | 29.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…bf76backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 4°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.