Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93254f0939c0d4515be43757475ab066c2094321303eeff170444d3291ba90dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 978.02$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 5c | 871.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 78c | 800$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.94 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 747.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 2c | 708.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 341.16$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 7c | 339.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 6c | 317.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 315.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 300.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 74c | 295.89$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 256.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 251$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 234.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 217.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 11c | 204.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 22c | 186$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 183.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 155.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed Yes | 24c | 151.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 15c | 151.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 10c | 142.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 19c | 132.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 15c | 129.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 67c | 117.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 38c | 111.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 76c | 110.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 109.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 20c | 102.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 102.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 20c | 94.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 29c | 86.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 23c | 85.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 81.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 62c | 75.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 74.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 69.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 57.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 38c | 56.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…fa2bbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 74c | 49.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 48.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 45.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 45.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 41.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 31.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 80c | 29.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 79c | 27.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 4°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.