Europa Conference League · resolved market
Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e609f6bbb34fc745ff259ca56756c59c841a37805ed8e7895c6a87dae2e1e70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 12,618$6,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,983.52 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Over | 56c | 8,415$4,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 2,126$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.88 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.99 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 21c | 1,248$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 14c | 1,213$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over | 55c | 999.99$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 21c | 713.35$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.41 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 21c | 595.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.17 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 72c | 590$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 59c | 504.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 78c | 454.55$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.55 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 445$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.45 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Over | 25c | 278.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 278.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 258.69$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.69 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 21c | 258$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Under | 7c | 232.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 22c | 230$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 38c | 223.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 50c | 220.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 210.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Over | 62c | 192.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Over | 73c | 171.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Over | 16c | 158$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…a818backed Over | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 56c | 132.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 50c | 130.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 65c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed Under | 44c | 113.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 68c | 104$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 54c | 82.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 80.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 28c | 75.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…804dbacked Over | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +236%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 47c | 72.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 72c | 72.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b656backed Over | 76c | 67.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Over | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 53c | 58.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9a…d745backed Over | 69c | 56.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 66c | 55.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 63c | 46.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 49c | 41.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…93bbbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…1754backed Under | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 42c | 36.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…de71backed Over | 47c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 37c | 30.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 59c | 27.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 24.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e4…8282backed Over | 73c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…547ebacked Under | 53c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 79c | 15.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.