TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14db…7cafbacked No31c1,276$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.344940.8%20 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No38c766.76$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.588,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes3c615.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.740525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes66c444.49$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.875,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No41c379.53$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.092,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes71c349.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes71c264.45$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.584,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked No41c242.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2520327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes63c241.9$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes58c240.35$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.51,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…5a54backed Yes64c232.58$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.851030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes62c221.98$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6342754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes60c212.35$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.612,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c181.33$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.494,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes66c157.57$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.681,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x321e…b542backed No24c149.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.431050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes57c131.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes63c126.83$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.759,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes65c120$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes58c119.65$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes58c119.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes59c110.43$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.142148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes54c110.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.568,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes70c109.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.672,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes46c105.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.941,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98f8…394dbacked No50c101.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.984835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes55c100.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8233746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No41c100.4$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.261,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes71c93.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2677851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No38c92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4616045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes67c89.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.041,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No51c87.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7741051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c86.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed No25c80.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4576936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No29c76.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.21,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes44c76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2710640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes65c75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.754761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes42c73.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.112,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No38c71.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.793,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes58c71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0718…a164backed No22c69.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.311631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes62c60.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c59.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.134,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes70c56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.22,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.57852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes52c48.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2714135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes69c46.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.413,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes66c45.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8320144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.056,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd32…78dabacked Yes55c43.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+74.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No37c43.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.382,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes64c42.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No59c42.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0222550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No28c42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.395,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c8…f565backed Yes66c40.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes67c40.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes70c39.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.077835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c39.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.42,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c39.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.416,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No39c38.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5616859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes53c36.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6146148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No54c36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6240461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48c…8ec6backed No44c35.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.582630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed Yes72c34.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6212052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes71c33.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.614,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62d9…6da7backed No60c31.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.763775.7%28 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e63…d4cbbacked No48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No61c31.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No69c30.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0544465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes58c29.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4615449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No42c28.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.646457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes54c27.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed No44c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1225261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes65c26.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1942555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes55c25.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes77c25.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No41c25.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0415246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No45c24.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x554e…b670backed Yes55c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.164757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked Yes55c23.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9944567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c23.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.942,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No75c23.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.91,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No58c20.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6838860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes64c20.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1359144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…c110backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1087629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd3e…feb5backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed Yes55c19.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9928866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No76c19.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.732,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cbe…f6e8backed Yes77c14.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.