Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8a5e1eb73a333cf74a06d073584193160efb310451111b1e5804b1b4d905a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 39c | 606.29$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.65 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 51c | 320$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 199 | 20.6%41 W · 158 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 287.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 53c | 287.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.41 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 47c | 284.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 49c | 255.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed No | 54c | 235.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 229.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 199.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 49c | 199.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 26c | 186.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 185$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…60bbbacked Yes | 59c | 171.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 50c | 170.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 157.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 152.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 149.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 51c | 145.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 62c | 128.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 8c | 126.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 66c | 124.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 421 | 33.3%140 W · 281 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 114.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 104.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 100.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 26c | 93.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…3531backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 79.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 78.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 77.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 65c | 73.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 72.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 54c | 69.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 64.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 47c | 59.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 66c | 56.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 61c | 54.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked No | 47c | 53.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 47.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 74c | 40.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 49c | 40.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 39.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 50c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 37.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…e163backed Yes | 54c | 37.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 36.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 36.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 49c | 34.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 70c | 34.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 47c | 34.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 50c | 33.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 78c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 31.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 30.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 73c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 41c | 29.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 54c | 28.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 64c | 26.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 53c | 25.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 53c | 25.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…91d4backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 47c | 22.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 74c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…bc4fbacked No | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9c…4d29backed Yes | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 64c | 18.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 79c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.