Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafede09a322de841f902d0a7df54e5d5cfc292309889d9422eb782fefe0e363a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 25c | 605.65$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 5c | 499.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 490.83$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 354.72$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 64c | 231.11$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 209.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 34c | 209.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 199 | 20.6%41 W · 158 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 185.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 162.03$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 14c | 139.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 37c | 134.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 133.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 29c | 123.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 421 | 33.3%140 W · 281 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 41c | 118.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 100.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 156 | 78.2%122 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 36c | 99.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 76c | 90.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 90.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 90.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 67c | 81.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 78.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked No | 68c | 77.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 44c | 72.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 66.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 65.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 63.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 55c | 59.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 22c | 53.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 45.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 27c | 41.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 41.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 38.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 42c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 33.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 55c | 32.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 57c | 28.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 74c | 28.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 28.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 25.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.