F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ebc567e4c515031eb0a013073805c67fa7f69ecb8836ad09aef788ade061c0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 39c | 11,478$4,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,474.62 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 61c | 9,999$6,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.61 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 68c | 1,209$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.65 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 59c | 1,188$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.1 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 61c | 817$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 41c | 764$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.43 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 44c | 708.34$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.35 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Yes | 39c | 654.73$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.9 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 33c | 599.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacfb…8c5dbacked Yes | 9c | 468.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 61c | 325$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 67c | 217.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 62c | 208.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…dc77backed Yes | 39c | 166.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 63c | 143.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 68c | 131.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf218…c4c7backed Yes | 41c | 102.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c1…642ebacked No | 72c | 82.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Yes | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 75.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 34c | 59.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…c79ebacked Yes | 43c | 50.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…8c7abacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…6d9fbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 67c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked No | 66c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 55c | 21.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…79f3backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian GP pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.