Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f60fe96414d26ebed2301fbb506476d0b661ba7e5cb07a214a23d45b30f0a9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof summer bear, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0396…86babacked summer bear | 28c | 1,437$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Spirit Academy | 78c | 1,064$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.83 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 768.49$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.41 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…e45fbacked summer bear | 23c | 685.38$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed summer bear | 34c | 628.26$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 521.33$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…9805backed Spirit Academy | 61c | 481.74$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed summer bear | 40c | 466.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Spirit Academy | 58c | 364.98$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8b…a00dbacked summer bear | 6c | 248.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed summer bear | 9c | 225.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear | 34c | 212.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…358fbacked summer bear | 17c | 193.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…6fb2backed summer bear | 27c | 157.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked summer bear | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 149.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 33c | 134.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed summer bear | 33c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked summer bear | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 36c | 94.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked summer bear | 39c | 90.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…9428backed Spirit Academy | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…a29ebacked Spirit Academy | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed summer bear | 31c | 85.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…647cbacked summer bear | 41c | 73.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…4b77backed Spirit Academy | 80c | 72.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Spirit Academy | 71c | 64.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked summer bear | 20c | 64.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed summer bear | 42c | 62.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2642…deddbacked summer bear | 35c | 55.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked summer bear | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed summer bear | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed summer bear | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy | 69c | 48.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked summer bear | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Spirit Academy | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked summer bear | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed summer bear | 41c | 38.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4f…a4d3backed summer bear | 45c | 37.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce7…9cacbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked summer bear | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…7aa8backed summer bear | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf066…3349backed summer bear | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 29.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6c…61dbbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 29.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…c3e2backed summer bear | 43c | 27.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…8703backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Spirit Academy | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.