Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb671d29af355cfbb141a8c11b0d4a987a4ddcb4481096e1da732e0a35a38c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 60c | 826.27$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.35 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 765.7$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 50c | 734.57$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.14 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 41c | 721.04$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.53 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 41c | 685.87$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.99 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 30c | 645.93$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 52c | 443.91$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 55c | 431.85$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 373.93$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 24c | 367.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.13 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 44c | 335.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 19c | 325.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 315.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 25c | 307.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.66 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 304.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 8c | 294.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.39 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 274.33$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 265.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 253.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 247.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 243.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 230.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 221.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 23c | 213.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.42 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 203.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 21c | 177.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 27c | 172.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 55c | 167.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 166.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 27c | 164.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 163.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…1968backed Yes | 33c | 156.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 26c | 149.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked No | 69c | 140.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9967…7a31backed Yes | 62c | 139.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 137.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 130.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…be32backed Yes | 64c | 121.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…6cc9backed Yes | 64c | 119.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 26c | 118.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 34c | 117.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 42c | 117.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 26c | 116.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 24c | 113.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 112.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 105.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 40c | 105.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1a…ee3fbacked Yes | 43c | 104.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 103.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…e2bcbacked Yes | 33c | 98.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 70c | 98.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 51c | 97.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 58c | 95.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 94.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6825…836abacked Yes | 51c | 93.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 88.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 78c | 83.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 25c | 79.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 73.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 17c | 72.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 78c | 71.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 20c | 69.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 40c | 65.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fea…8b63backed Yes | 35c | 63.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 21c | 61.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 25c | 61.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 76c | 58.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 31c | 56.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 53.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 52.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 65c | 50.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 21c | 48.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 32c | 48.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 48.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 64c | 45.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 35c | 43.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 64c | 42.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 40.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…9181backed Yes | 31c | 38.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 43c | 38.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 70c | 35.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 34.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 34.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 33.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…589cbacked Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 36c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 65c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 57c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 80c | 24.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 24.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 79c | 23.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 79c | 22.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.