Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6391a7b32df9b15558e196c83b1d239aee8cac0c674acc4a2930838715a9a093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 41c | 528.72$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 502.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 500.37$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 42c | 443.91$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.71 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…c7dbbacked No | 67c | 384.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 310.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 308.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 257.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 55c | 250$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 62c | 241.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 9c | 228.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 217.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 23c | 205.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 204.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 44c | 195.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 172.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 161.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 55c | 158.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 29c | 157.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 152.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 38c | 152.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 37c | 147.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 142.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 47c | 127.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 126.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 40c | 116.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 113.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 43c | 112.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 110.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 45c | 100.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…e2bcbacked Yes | 43c | 99.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 84.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked No | 51c | 81.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 33c | 81.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 77.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 33c | 77.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 74.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 51c | 73.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 43c | 72.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…ec46backed No | 68c | 70.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 42c | 68.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 64.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 37c | 63.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 27c | 61.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 41c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 42c | 58.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 44c | 58.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 57.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 48c | 57.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 47c | 55.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Yes | 43c | 55.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 68c | 52.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 56c | 51.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…8827backed Yes | 43c | 51.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked No | 70c | 50.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…b2a6backed Yes | 39c | 50.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…16fcbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 46.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 67c | 46.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 44.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 32c | 44.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…9901backed Yes | 47c | 40.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 40.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 71c | 39.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 54c | 39.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…4df3backed Yes | 49c | 38.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 38.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 33c | 36.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5717…58b4backed Yes | 52c | 36.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 57c | 35.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 41c | 35.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…960abacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 30.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 47c | 30.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 44c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 69c | 29.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 47c | 27.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…131ebacked Yes | 54c | 26.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 25.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 64c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 67c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 50c | 22.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed No | 67c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…de61backed Yes | 57c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 53c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.