MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbea366f7905fb965b02be3e668d57fad1c7d566e505408386ab47a0faedda7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 13,793$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…d96fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 11,559$6,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,959.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 10,797$4,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,129.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 7,300$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,266.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 5,776$3,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 2,912$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…fc82backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.88 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47d…322bbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 719.42$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 659.7$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 563.15$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 534.25$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 517.01$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 433.33$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 416.13$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 249.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 186.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 148.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 137.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 105.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 98.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 26c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 93.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 83.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 74.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f1…5729backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 63.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 51.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 48.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 43.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 40.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 39.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 36.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 35.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 34.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 31.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 31.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 17.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.