MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4791adc3e592602914e11c832feaebb38455b341f626b5b2b1f4a4eabebd0d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 50,817$25,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,814.14 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 14,240$6,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,263.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 8,568$4,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,369.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 49c | 5,962$2,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.44 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 3,604$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 3,233$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.83 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 2,633$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.04 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 2,247$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 2,048$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.24 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,523$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 35c | 1,137$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.54 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 1,004$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.95 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 883.52$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 635$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 49c | 598.31$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.14 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 492$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 51c | 465.58$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.87 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 49c | 404.08$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 51c | 372.87$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 49c | 315.7$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.01 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 298$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.97 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 51c | 220.59$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 50c | 214.42$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Under | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 49c | 154.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 49c | 153.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 36c | 141.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 48c | 138.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 21c | 108.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 91.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 51c | 73.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 51c | 73.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 50c | 69.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 55c | 65.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Under | 29c | 57.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 53.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 52.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 52c | 48.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 67c | 40.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 39.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 70c | 36.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 34.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 49c | 32.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…59f1backed Over | 51c | 29.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 50c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…9502backed Over | 49c | 26.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.