Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fcbf10e12ab6c28bfddb3b3ffc40597d851a568e98c52253127533034fe02f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Aurora, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports | 39c | 35,669$13,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,723.68 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Tundra Esports | 41c | 28,013$11,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,486.46 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 56c | 15,625$8,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,730.47 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports | 44c | 10,703$4,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,974.97 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c63…0ca5backed Aurora | 57c | 9,461$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,392.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 63c | 8,679$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500.2 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 6,544$4,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.74 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Aurora | 68c | 6,430$4,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,364.78 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 54c | 6,405$3,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,470.53 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 46c | 6,064$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…5f73backed Aurora | 51c | 5,731$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.11 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed Aurora | 54c | 5,462$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.4 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.98 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked Aurora | 60c | 4,737$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 49c | 4,623$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.79 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 56c | 3,542$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…be68backed Aurora | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Tundra Esports | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.99 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 2,491$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.65 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Aurora | 55c | 1,817$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.47 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…f406backed Aurora | 57c | 1,766$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed Aurora | 42c | 1,485$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora | 42c | 1,481$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.08 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Aurora | 7c | 1,311$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39f…c1fdbacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 1,303$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 1,300$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora | 67c | 1,149$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.28 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 56c | 1,108$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.55 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Tundra Esports | 33c | 999.95$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.67 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tundra Esports | 43c | 930.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.43 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Tundra Esports | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.09 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora | 39c | 867$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.38 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Tundra Esports | 38c | 796.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.22 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 787.86$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.56 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…620cbacked Aurora | 67c | 749.79$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.05 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 56c | 727.06$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.71 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 65c | 702.14$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.41 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 679.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 678.68$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.37 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.53 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed Tundra Esports | 32c | 599.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.98 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 62c | 590.37$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 26c | 549.78$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.68 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 500$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…8ababacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 489.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.57 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Aurora | 65c | 461.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.85 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 56c | 448.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…d212backed Aurora | 67c | 448.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 65c | 441.17$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 67c | 433$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.11 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 413.07$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.58 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Aurora | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked Aurora | 69c | 390.17$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports | 33c | 331.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.59 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc24…6d67backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 330.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Aurora | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 62c | 292.86$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 50c | 280$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Tundra Esports | 34c | 276.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.41 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 274.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 258.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 68c | 251.4$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…7deebacked Tundra Esports | 37c | 248.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…4758backed Tundra Esports | 35c | 236.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Aurora | 55c | 234.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Tundra Esports | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 35c | 200.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…d45fbacked Aurora | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 68c | 198.53$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 197.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Aurora | 23c | 193.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 31c | 191.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Aurora | 39c | 179.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…3539backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Aurora | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e75fbacked Aurora | 15c | 146.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 137 | 32.8%45 W · 92 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Aurora | 10c | 143.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Aurora | 69c | 137.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 131.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f5…795bbacked Tundra Esports | 34c | 118.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…d1a4backed Tundra Esports | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Aurora | 63c | 110.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Tundra Esports | 34c | 109.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…9aadbacked Aurora | 50c | 103.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Aurora | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Aurora | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)Tundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.