TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Aurora, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,056 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports39c35,669$13,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,723.6855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Tundra Esports41c28,013$11,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,486.4628748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora56c15,625$8,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,730.4733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports44c10,703$4,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,974.9760542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c63…0ca5backed Aurora57c9,461$5,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,392.491936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora63c8,679$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500.296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Tundra Esports67c6,544$4,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.7434468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Aurora68c6,430$4,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,364.7814253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora54c6,405$3,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,470.532,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora46c6,064$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Aurora51c5,731$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,902.117143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Aurora54c5,462$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,967.410741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora65c5,000$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.9820159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Aurora60c4,737$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.993850%19 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora49c4,623$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.7966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora56c3,542$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Aurora66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9803250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Tundra Esports34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.998543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports45c2,491$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.6577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Aurora55c1,817$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.478242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90016142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6d…f406backed Aurora57c1,766$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.550%0 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb37a…1aa1backed Aurora42c1,485$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora42c1,481$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.084949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Aurora7c1,311$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6665625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39f…c1fdbacked Tundra Esports77c1,303$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Tundra Esports39c1,300$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7939345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora67c1,149$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.288060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora56c1,108$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.5557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Tundra Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50058744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Tundra Esports33c999.95$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.6780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Tundra Esports43c930.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.4333850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Tundra Esports33c909.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.0921346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora39c867$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.386454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Tundra Esports38c796.22$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.2225457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Tundra Esports47c787.86$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.568833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Aurora67c749.79$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.058544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora56c727.06$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.712,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora65c702.14$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4135758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Tundra Esports74c679.3$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.321264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports42c678.68$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.371,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Aurora65c600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5388166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed Tundra Esports32c599.97$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.985446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Aurora62c590.37$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36626453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora26c549.78$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.521,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6859250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Tundra Esports77c500$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11611960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbb0…8ababacked Tundra Esports36c489.53$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.573638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Aurora65c461.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8553844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora56c448.89$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora67c448.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora65c441.17$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.259556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora67c433$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Tundra Esports42c413.07$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.5815946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Aurora50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21df…fdbcbacked Aurora69c390.17$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.22560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports33c331.59$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5955251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc24…6d67backed Tundra Esports61c330.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa4…71c5backed Aurora35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20461548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora62c292.86$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18358152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora50c280$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.864149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Tundra Esports34c276.38$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4154445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Tundra Esports73c274.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.145061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Tundra Esports45c258.22$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2243647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora68c251.4$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17072154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb15f…7deebacked Tundra Esports37c248.95$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.845552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora50c240$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.421,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b0…4758backed Tundra Esports35c236.47$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.953956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Aurora55c234.21$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6224052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Tundra Esports49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0824045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora35c200.38$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.772,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Aurora50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Tundra Esports45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports38c200$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12519246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13253757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac5d…d45fbacked Aurora9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189535.8%34 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Aurora68c198.53$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13516160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Tundra Esports40c197.37$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4256848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Aurora23c193.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.711,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Aurora31c191.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9348352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Aurora39c179.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9918952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x772c…3539backed Tundra Esports45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Aurora52c149.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Aurora15c146.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5113732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Aurora10c143.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8216821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed Aurora69c137.68$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9513449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports40c131.66$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f5…795bbacked Tundra Esports34c118.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.766160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Tundra Esports34c117.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.659045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Aurora63c110.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709548.4%46 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked Tundra Esports34c109.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.933158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…9aadbacked Aurora50c103.56$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Aurora47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4728244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b0…6960backed Aurora69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.768055%44 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5597142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5222654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.