Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd13cb80756a5e4de3ab90c328d6862ba65854f8c03d698823bba304ac6c102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sentinelsof Sentinels, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Shopify Rebellion | 55c | 25,520$14,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,101.39 | 1,635 | 40.2%657 W · 978 L | +48.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Sentinels | 43c | 14,875$6,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,412.43 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Sentinels | 43c | 10,887$4,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,211.76 | 1,502 | 50.3%756 W · 746 L | +71.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…832fbacked Sentinels | 46c | 10,751$4,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,825.25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 10,000$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,350 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Sentinels | 50c | 4,262$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.98 | 511 | 60.3%308 W · 203 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Shopify Rebellion | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 649 | 43.1%280 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.98 | 1,320 | 38.6%510 W · 810 L | -66.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b690backed Sentinels | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 829 | 54.5%452 W · 377 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 998.99$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.42 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620f…4288backed Shopify Rebellion | 50c | 982.2$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Sentinels | 49c | 889.62$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.74 | 321 | 60.7%195 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709e…ef0cbacked Sentinels | 50c | 557.44$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 500$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 1,117 | 48.8%545 W · 572 L | +40.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…3668backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…3df5backed Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 499.97$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Sentinels | 46c | 489.13$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.13 | 655 | 63.2%414 W · 241 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed Sentinels | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…5fa2backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 455.77$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.55 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Sentinels | 43c | 426.89$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.33 | 2,367 | 31.9%756 W · 1,611 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sentinels | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 57c | 399.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 963 | 48.7%469 W · 494 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 342.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…0782backed Sentinels | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 1,327 | 53.3%707 W · 620 L | +37.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…30f3backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 315.5$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.94 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 253.19$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 212 | 49.1%104 W · 108 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Sentinels | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 200.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Shopify Rebellion | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…4fb7backed Shopify Rebellion | 55c | 186$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked Shopify Rebellion | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 169.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…d48cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 165$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 275 | 40.4%111 W · 164 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…3efabacked Shopify Rebellion | 59c | 155.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Sentinels | 44c | 154.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 444 | 51.8%230 W · 214 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…3cc3backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 141.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Sentinels | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 125.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Sentinels | 50c | 120.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Sentinels | 50c | 105.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 302 | 53.6%162 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Sentinels | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 321 | 42.1%135 W · 186 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 96.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1,577 | 48.4%764 W · 813 L | +17.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Sentinels | 44c | 95.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…6e31backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 84.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…0023backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 69.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9408…80e4backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 52.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Sentinels | 50c | 51.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1,181 | 66%780 W · 401 L | +70.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 43.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d3…3109backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 43.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…383bbacked Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 42.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Sentinels | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 33.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…dd18backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 57c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Sentinels | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 504 | 56%282 W · 222 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…bc77backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 25.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ea80backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…7e1dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 24.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Sentinels | 57c | 18.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 466 | 41.4%193 W · 273 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…05d8backed Shopify Rebellion | 60c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonSentinels won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 WinnerSentinels won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 WinnerSentinels won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.