Dota2 · resolved market
Rune Eaters vs Xtreme Gaming: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b283c8886de86e4d194370c565d02c441f4ea03970db902637c7457f146ca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 36c | 2,674$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.04 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 62c | 2,625$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.21 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 24c | 409$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 61c | 385.19$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.21 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 338.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0217…1579backed Yes | 36c | 278.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Yes | 25c | 257.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Yes | 28c | 195$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 70c | 165$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 21c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 11c | 136.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 53c | 114.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 34c | 108.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yes | 18c | 90.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…b46bbacked Yes | 34c | 71.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Yes | 33c | 60.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 54.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked No | 69c | 38.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 37.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 70c | 36.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 64c | 31.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 70c | 23.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…8810backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rune Eaters vs Xtreme Gaming: Draw (1-1)?this page
- Rune Eaters to win 2-0?No won
- Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.