Dota2 · resolved market
Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244d654a2561c0bedd18de288c2d9ffed9e4f96aee71c5122e4c21b914f9ef53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 61c | 12,437$7,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,538.27 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 61c | 10,953$6,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,681.66 | 233 | 36.9%86 W · 147 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe9…5f53backed No | 39c | 8,686$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,270.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 34c | 8,391$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 65c | 7,518$4,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,895.96 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 39c | 5,761$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,533.63 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 40c | 3,051$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.9 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…9d89backed No | 70c | 1,900$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…9441backed No | 42c | 1,750$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.18 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…f6d9backed Yes | 60c | 1,644$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…87f6backed No | 38c | 1,300$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f6…2463backed No | 39c | 1,246$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed No | 43c | 871.59$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.71 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…258abacked No | 39c | 862.24$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…ff18backed Yes | 58c | 850.71$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 39c | 810.09$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.53 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 44c | 750$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 58c | 637.96$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.99 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 42c | 583.55$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.62 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 40c | 507.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.79 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 68c | 480.5$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…6107backed No | 42c | 433.14$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.14 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 45c | 422.09$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.62 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked No | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 40c | 396$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.16 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed No | 42c | 340.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.93 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 63c | 320$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Yes | 65c | 300.38$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 288.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.53 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 56c | 270$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…ef2cbacked No | 38c | 245$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed No | 44c | 227.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked No | 42c | 225.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 45c | 222.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 57c | 202.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…74e8backed Yes | 54c | 201.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…0effbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed No | 38c | 188.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 186.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Yes | 59c | 176.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Yes | 59c | 175$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…64cebacked Yes | 59c | 170.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…4d51backed No | 39c | 160$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +33%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 19c | 138.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…9d3cbacked Yes | 12c | 109.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…a16abacked Yes | 61c | 82.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…370fbacked No | 38c | 65.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed Yes | 64c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 38c | 54.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 37.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 65c | 34.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…89adbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 44c | 32.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Yes | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 43c | 28.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…747fbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Yes | 53c | 21.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 58c | 18.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 524 | 50.8%266 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…e023backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Xtreme Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- Rune Eaters to win 2-0?No won
- Rune Eaters vs Xtreme Gaming: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.