Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b44cf8474f6a875912610846dc1ad2b8110c7f7b42586e58b6c5a4d6576e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 3c | 999.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 512.12$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 413.6$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 410.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 237.92$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 46c | 228.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.87 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 46c | 163.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 140.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 138.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 53c | 117.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 75c | 102.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 86.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 82.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 39c | 78.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 65.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 36c | 59.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 58.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 70c | 57.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 40c | 57.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 56.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 54.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 38c | 52.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 57c | 52.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 63c | 49.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 47c | 47.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 41c | 45.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 43.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 40c | 38.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 57c | 38.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 36.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 64c | 35.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 50c | 31.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 67c | 30.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 28.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 59c | 26.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 25.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 25.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…dc60backed No | 61c | 24.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 23.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…6224backed No | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 21.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 59c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 19.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 77c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 77c | 13.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.