Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e3ce702c7b95155fd271e8f731ead79d1ce53d4ba536e8ab976020c694bc941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 500.23$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 33c | 336.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 46c | 244.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…4302backed Yes | 48c | 219.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 43c | 186.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 54c | 184.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 139.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 42c | 134.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 71c | 132.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 42c | 119.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 44c | 118.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 79c | 105.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 99.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 48c | 89.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed No | 52c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 58c | 81.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 79.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bd…1ef5backed No | 63c | 79.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked Yes | 31c | 75.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…d731backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 57c | 72.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 32c | 68.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 63c | 66.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 57.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 47c | 56.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d996backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 70c | 55.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 53.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 51.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…d677backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736a…26f0backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…16e9backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 73c | 48.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 42c | 46.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 39c | 46.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…7883backed No | 79c | 44.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…ddd3backed Yes | 34c | 44.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…517cbacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 40c | 41.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 41.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…994dbacked Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…88e2backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…4558backed No | 54c | 36.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…fa42backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 35.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…dc60backed No | 66c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 72c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 40c | 25.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed No | 76c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 58c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.