Middle East · resolved market
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d950da4462a8ec0e486a03628c65efc44d7b44a2f5a2555cfe6c92782095f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6b1…d9eebacked No | 0c | 6,603$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,552$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec65…b7f4backed No | 4c | 1,438$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 2c | 1,317$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…3ab0backed No | 8c | 1,292$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 902.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…7550backed No | 8c | 615.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 19c | 480.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.3 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…bcaabacked Yes | 71c | 425.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 8c | 322.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.05 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 6c | 313.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…f48fbacked No | 6c | 293.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 5c | 289.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.09 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 289.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a64…aa20backed No | 5c | 286.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 26c | 282.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 40c | 267.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 6c | 258.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 241.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…8024backed No | 7c | 193.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 8c | 189.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 28c | 154.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…3fa5backed No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…d2fdbacked Yes | 40c | 125.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 20c | 124.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…369fbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 76c | 91.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 89.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 22c | 88.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked No | 79c | 76.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…82b9backed No | 70c | 71.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…26f8backed No | 40c | 70.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…62b4backed Yes | 31c | 64.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 40c | 61.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…bcf4backed No | 69c | 58.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed Yes | 26c | 57.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 50.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 25c | 49.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 78c | 49.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 48.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 47.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 26c | 39.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c80…a49dbacked No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356e…75b8backed Yes | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 49c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…fd49backed No | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026?this page
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.