MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21aa7a91827b6afd42ca8e43915157061bf6159220f14ace6eed7d0783ba3fb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060f…5a9dbacked No | 48c | 9,669$4,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,014.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,996$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.92 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 54c | 1,555$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.7 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 44c | 721.16$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.22 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 55c | 613.26$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.13 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 51c | 294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Yes | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 34c | 243.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 52c | 192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 53c | 124.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 55c | 104$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 49c | 73.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 53c | 63.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 53c | 59.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 65c | 45.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.