MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e92c9310a7a4f2b0f97a9cbe1072efd0ab0b9c32c5ef80129ba670f6d561ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 53c | 84,128$44,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,416.62 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 73,177$34,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,026.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 19,394$10,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,115.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 13,453$7,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,188.5 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 47c | 12,500$5,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,875 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Over | 47c | 11,611$5,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,457.03 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 10,889$5,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,086.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Over | 46c | 3,723$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.69 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 3,185$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.74 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 2,817$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.05 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 2,221$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.66 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 1,852$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 46c | 1,740$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 64c | 1,363$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 1,186$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.24 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 64c | 1,121$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.71 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 974.99$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 46c | 892.72$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.65 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 825$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 481.8$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.79 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 46c | 412.85$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.05 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 46c | 326.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 325.15$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 292$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 76c | 214.24$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 209.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…fd6cbacked Over | 46c | 208.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 53c | 192.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 47c | 191.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 50c | 168.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 46c | 150.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 47c | 139.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 110.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 53c | 103.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 46c | 95.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 91.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 86.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 61c | 82.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 41c | 75.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Over | 46c | 75.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 73.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 71.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 66c | 64.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 62.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 23c | 54.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 53.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 47c | 35.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 35c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over | 39c | 32.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 54c | 29.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 46c | 26.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 47c | 25.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…faeebacked Under | 59c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.