MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ee1561c8e7d730dde03c52290927e651e91cfae4b45b37881fc25882251179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 52c | 25,857$13,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,445.5 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 25,343$13,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,074.91 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 46c | 20,691$9,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,173.14 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 16,366$8,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,241.37 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 48c | 4,766$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.53 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 48c | 4,766$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.53 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 2,421$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.56 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 2,338$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.7 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 2,223$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.77 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 54c | 2,178$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.11 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.6 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 1,690$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 1,399$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.08 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 54c | 1,300$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 48c | 1,087$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.14 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,040$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 53c | 950.04$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 54c | 920.69$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.17 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 915.45$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.34 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 848.59$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.43 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 681.24$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.04 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 585$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.9 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 55c | 439.2$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.56 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 313.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 54c | 293.25$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 54c | 277.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 36c | 258.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 235.8$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.23 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Over | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 213.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 213$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 47c | 203$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 55c | 139.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 66c | 128.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 52c | 116.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 57c | 109.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 45c | 91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 52c | 74.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 46c | 64.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 54c | 52.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 52c | 52.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 47.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 48c | 47.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 47c | 44.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Over | 78c | 44.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed Over | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Over | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Under | 46c | 39.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 48c | 30.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Under | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 56c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 52c | 25.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Under | 48c | 23.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 54c | 18.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.