MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc7391c03c661fa97c6085336466816c9451cfa84b97d6323dfb5da9090e239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 4,744$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 2,849$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.42 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Kansas City Royals | 0c | 2,845$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 1,269$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.79 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 1,201$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 1,198$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 1,059$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 993.68$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.4 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 946.5$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 881.58$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 876$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.08 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 537.79$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 457.26$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 394.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 249.52$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 217.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 155.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 135.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 128.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 126$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 126$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 97.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 80.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…29a1backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 80.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 56.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 48.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 46.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…ddc0backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 46.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 45.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 44.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 36.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 36.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 36.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 33.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 33.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2d27backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 32.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 22.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.