NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21f34b30b8c9b8cd087ced4399d273e8e095d444c42a36ae336b61ad7e78ac3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,359 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 40c | 279.4$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 33c | 207.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 60c | 178$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 62c | 170.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 135.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 133.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 55c | 120.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 76c | 103.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 38c | 98.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 90.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 43c | 80.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 80.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 64.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…b6d0backed Under | 42c | 63.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 48c | 52.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…fb78backed Under | 42c | 51.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 61c | 50.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 36.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 40c | 36.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 58c | 29.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…b505backed Over | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Over | 60c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 64c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Rockets vs. BullsBulls won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Bulls won
- Tre Jones: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.