NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a7168839d140c7403b768b92ea4e2c43b0fccebfcdc15320731086decc0f807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,145 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 15,119$6,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,766.14 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 6,644$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,804.5 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 6,112$3,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 4,429$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,214.52 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 79c | 2,686$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.81 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 16c | 2,274$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 73c | 1,306$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.87 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 54c | 1,279$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.66 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 55c | 1,190$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.51 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 44c | 981$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 56c | 820.9$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.35 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 33c | 682.92$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.76 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 32c | 549.03$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 11c | 475.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 459$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.13 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 52c | 379.88$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 48c | 329.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.16 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 73c | 314.84$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 68c | 279.82$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 56c | 183$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 47c | 152.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…7c23backed Over | 55c | 145.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 48c | 115.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 55c | 113.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Over | 55c | 113.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 71c | 113.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 45c | 110.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…9823backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 16c | 82.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Over | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Under | 47c | 50.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 57c | 28.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 71c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | -18.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…241fbacked Over | 62c | 21.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Rockets vs. BullsBulls won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Bulls won
- Tre Jones: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.