NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a2edb887ea360e837e2db5fdb8026134554bb8a1f71c24ece3571e5b12ca46

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Rockets, Bulls
Resolved: Mar 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,109 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Bulls	46c	172,647$78,848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93,799.69	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Rockets	50c	122,085$60,942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60,942	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Rockets	55c	18,682$10,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,275.36	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets	55c	16,757$9,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,170.41	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Rockets	55c	13,584$7,471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,470.98	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Rockets	55c	12,050$6,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,627.5	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls	52c	3,180$1,654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,526.66	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls	44c	1,630$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$904.94	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Rockets	57c	877.19$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	206	51.5%106 W · 100 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Bulls	44c	859.03$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$481.06	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Bulls	46c	800$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Bulls	45c	763$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.65	231	47.6%110 W · 121 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets	55c	757$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.35	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets	55c	721.35$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.14	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Rockets	22c	512$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.64	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf1e…63bbbacked Rockets	36c	499.99$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.99	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls	45c	497.57$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.94	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Rockets	55c	476.36$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed Rockets	40c	294.82$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.93	106	45.3%48 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Rockets	55c	273.21$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.26	584	50.2%293 W · 291 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bulls	44c	255.89$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.3	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bulls	44c	253.71$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.08	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…d3c2backed Rockets	29c	247.22$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Rockets	56c	215$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.4	215	50.2%108 W · 107 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Rockets	24c	205.55$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.7	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a8d…150bbacked Rockets	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Rockets	56c	178.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	197	56.3%111 W · 86 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Bulls	45c	157$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.35	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a0…f673backed Rockets	55c	150.28$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.65	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Bulls	50c	147.25$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.25	218	43.6%95 W · 123 L	-15.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Bulls	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x714d…6e05backed Rockets	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Bulls	45c	99.99$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.5	533	39.6%211 W · 322 L	-39.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a8…d8cdbacked Rockets	56c	96.3$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.82	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Rockets	54c	95.96$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.82	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Rockets	55c	91.74$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.74	1,888	37.3%704 W · 1,184 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55d…001ebacked Rockets	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Rockets	56c	89.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f43…4a38backed Rockets	56c	89.02$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.85	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe10…bd67backed Rockets	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bulls	60c	82.43$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.97	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bulls	46c	77$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.58	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Bulls	62c	71.77$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.28	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	70c	71.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.21	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Rockets	50c	69.59$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.55	686	45.5%312 W · 374 L	-22.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Rockets	50c	60.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.45	488	52%254 W · 234 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bulls	45c	57.21$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.46	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe16…5fa2backed Rockets	56c	57$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	64	42.2%27 W · 37 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62ff…ec56backed Rockets	54c	55.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	252	45.2%114 W · 138 L	-11.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Rockets	55c	51.93$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Bulls	57c	47.02$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.13	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Rockets	47c	45.55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	298	48%143 W · 155 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x898f…e9f2backed Rockets	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Bulls	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	139	47.5%66 W · 73 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x584c…0da9backed Rockets	56c	43$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.08	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls	57c	42.47$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.31	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Bulls	57c	41.01$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.71	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b2…2e80backed Rockets	49c	40.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	158	55.7%88 W · 70 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Bulls	44c	40.2$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.31	1,322	49.9%660 W · 662 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked Rockets	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Bulls	49c	37.92$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.53	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Rockets	55c	37.36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	553	47.9%265 W · 288 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Rockets	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bulls	45c	36.72$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.01	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Bulls	48c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.77	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Rockets	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	373	44.2%165 W · 208 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Rockets	54c	35.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	650	45.1%293 W · 357 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Rockets	57c	35.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	119	49.6%59 W · 60 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c5…8581backed Rockets	57c	35.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d26…6f74backed Rockets	54c	33.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb595…7af9backed Rockets	56c	32.13$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea34…8efcbacked Rockets	55c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87eb…456ebacked Rockets	50c	29.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb682…2d79backed Rockets	54c	29.63$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed Bulls	46c	29.37$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.86	84	42.9%36 W · 48 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bulls	67c	28.58$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.52	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Rockets	48c	24.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	877	44.7%392 W · 485 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Rockets	57c	23.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	176	60.8%107 W · 69 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bulls	51c	23.33$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.48	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Bulls	45c	22.89$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.59	181	43.1%78 W · 103 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Rockets	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	355	46.5%165 W · 190 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Bulls	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.5	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)this page
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Rockets vs. BullsBulls won
Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Bulls won
Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Bulls won
Tre Jones: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event