NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf291c6e53b06e607409bf8861f9b0f33fc9444090765b4aca802ea2e84086522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Rockets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,337 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 54c | 1,060$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.99 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Rockets | 48c | 543.9$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.55 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rockets | 35c | 514.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Rockets | 45c | 338.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Bulls | 58c | 183.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…ac07backed Rockets | 72c | 127.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Bulls | 56c | 114$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Rockets | 66c | 98.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Bulls | 34c | 98.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7e…30a5backed Bulls | 57c | 52.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed Bulls | 52c | 50.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…f55cbacked Bulls | 52c | 50.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Rockets | 25c | 50.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Bulls | 44c | 23.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Bulls | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa181…1b5cbacked Rockets | 71c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 73cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Rockets vs. BullsBulls won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Bulls won
- Tre Jones: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.