Music · resolved market
Will Man I Need by Olivia Dean be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22dda572e37b7e4fdd6ac048a668876a1b5324a4445d9210fd3e1221c6691a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 49c | 1,300$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.73 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,288$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.2 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 18c | 749.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 642.84$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 17c | 479.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 409.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 40c | 384.8$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.07 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 12c | 302.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…b749backed Yes | 68c | 285.27$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 205.32$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…d722backed Yes | 9c | 187.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…e6dbbacked No | 53c | 163$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…be9abacked No | 23c | 159.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +116%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…4464backed No | 51c | 129.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 37c | 120.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 119.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 22c | 114.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 28c | 108.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…a8cfbacked Yes | 67c | 105.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 70c | 79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…3921backed Yes | 13c | 76.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 39c | 71.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 24c | 70.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 66.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 57c | 60.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 60.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 22c | 55.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 52.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 43.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…e909backed Yes | 40c | 42.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…09bebacked No | 72c | 37.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de7…1e31backed No | 47c | 35.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548d…8872backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…60f1backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Man I Need by Olivia Dean be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?this page
- Will Aperture by Harry Styles be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?No won
- Will Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?Yes won
- Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?No won
- Will I Just Might by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.