TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Forsaken vs Barcząca Esports (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Forsakenof Forsaken, Barcząca Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,284 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c29…167ebacked Barcząca Esports23c15,633$3,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,621.62755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Barcząca Esports14c8,945$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.242,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Barcząca Esports18c6,167$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.091,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0587…c40bbacked Barcząca Esports32c3,085$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.6717045.9%78 W · 92 L+16.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Barcząca Esports36c2,572$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.011,24439.7%494 W · 750 L-69.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Forsaken69c2,514$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.572,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Barcząca Esports9c2,341$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.499437.2%35 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Barcząca Esports18c2,179$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.211,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Forsaken70c2,172$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.5948147.2%227 W · 254 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Forsaken76c1,544$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.1169259.7%413 W · 279 L+75.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed Barcząca Esports6c1,150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6956610.4%59 W · 507 L+16.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Forsaken61c1,147$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.911,06723.5%251 W · 816 L-76.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Barcząca Esports27c1,102$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010348.5%50 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Barcząca Esports19c1,100$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.991,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Barcząca Esports17c1,001$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.171,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bec…c248backed Barcząca Esports20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017335.8%62 W · 111 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Barcząca Esports9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906021.7%13 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Forsaken60c858.93$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.5761645.3%279 W · 337 L+36.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Barcząca Esports45c713.43$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.7387443.1%377 W · 497 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e30…c14dbacked Barcząca Esports15c700$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.210143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Barcząca Esports37c694.05$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.83652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Forsaken61c676.33$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.482,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed Barcząca Esports43c662.81$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.819335.2%68 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Barcząca Esports20c603.91$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7813628.7%39 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Barcząca Esports25c502.11$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5731321.1%66 W · 247 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba1…838bbacked Forsaken78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11012569.6%87 W · 38 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b66…e8d5backed Forsaken63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Forsaken61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.542,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Forsaken71c496.87$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.142352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Barcząca Esports19c470.42$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.382,17853.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L+61.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Barcząca Esports14c453.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.081,18244.8%530 W · 652 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked Barcząca Esports22c407.88$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9016760.5%101 W · 66 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Barcząca Esports43c395.62$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.591,00454.5%547 W · 457 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dee…30b1backed Barcząca Esports62c370$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.921261.3%130 W · 82 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Barcząca Esports19c348$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.129154.9%50 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Forsaken69c340.42$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.282,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed Forsaken77c317.07$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.544264.3%27 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Forsaken63c307$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.271,65846.9%777 W · 881 L-25.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Barcząca Esports18c287.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5236338.8%141 W · 222 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Barcząca Esports32c286.94$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8236359%214 W · 149 L+21.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed Barcząca Esports21c285.7$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Forsaken58c281.22$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.2914441.7%60 W · 84 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Forsaken66c281$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2221544.7%96 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Barcząca Esports27c230.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7597744.8%438 W · 539 L-30.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Forsaken80c222.68$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.541,39944.9%628 W · 771 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d9…0b99backed Barcząca Esports27c204.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557050%35 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Barcząca Esports37c203$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.653,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x998f…9eb5backed Barcząca Esports6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125719.3%11 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe663…e9f8backed Barcząca Esports26c189.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4714250%71 W · 71 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Forsaken66c183.41$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3643543.2%188 W · 247 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Forsaken53c175.34$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.961,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2c3…f821backed Barcząca Esports35c173.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.344850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9773…94ecbacked Forsaken78c160.72$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.233174.2%23 W · 8 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+43.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbd28…26d9backed Forsaken78c157.57$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.281471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Barcząca Esports40c149.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6026240.5%106 W · 156 L-28.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Barcząca Esports34c149.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.241,14330.8%352 W · 791 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Forsaken71c146.94$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.521,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Forsaken67c144.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8141141.6%171 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Barcząca Esports35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012651.6%65 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2d…b69dbacked Barcząca Esports15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113160.3%79 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Forsaken75c138.54$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2620966.5%139 W · 70 L+29.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Barcząca Esports14c134.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.831,08546.2%501 W · 584 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…babcbacked Forsaken74c134.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Barcząca Esports24c133$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.341,09147.4%517 W · 574 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Barcząca Esports24c132.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3588949.6%441 W · 448 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63e3…2040backed Barcząca Esports30c127.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.534850%24 W · 24 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+51%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d9f…0c25backed Barcząca Esports13c126.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8831052.3%162 W · 148 L+30.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Barcząca Esports12c122.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb7…e9dbbacked Barcząca Esports41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506743.3%29 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Forsaken65c119.96$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.561,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97a8…9a5fbacked Barcząca Esports43c116.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506465.6%42 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Barcząca Esports23c111$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9816032.5%52 W · 108 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Barcząca Esports22c106$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0344355.5%246 W · 197 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed Barcząca Esports33c104.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3412945.7%59 W · 70 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Barcząca Esports19c104$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.979342.1%334 W · 459 L-26.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Forsaken59c102$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0165725.9%170 W · 487 L-93.4wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-53.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x903c…02febacked Barcząca Esports26c100.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.831833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed Forsaken60c99.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4016845.8%77 W · 91 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Forsaken52c99.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.791,26542.8%541 W · 724 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Forsaken55c99.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.994141.5%17 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Barcząca Esports20c96.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.215337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8340…4ae4backed Barcząca Esports20c90.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e1f…67cabacked Barcząca Esports56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed Forsaken57c87.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7425046%115 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Barcząca Esports34c84.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7516048.8%78 W · 82 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Barcząca Esports19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.214835.1%52 W · 96 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Barcząca Esports40c79.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.62,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c8…aa76backed Barcząca Esports19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6740…6312backed Barcząca Esports20c78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b7…452fbacked Forsaken70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1431…94d0backed Barcząca Esports38c67.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.674463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b1…b851backed Barcząca Esports30c67.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Forsaken73c63.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1940055.8%223 W · 177 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Forsaken80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.54456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Barcząca Esports18c60.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119849%48 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed Barcząca Esports19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.454932.4%178 W · 371 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed Barcząca Esports28c59.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.099444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed Forsaken56c55.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7621344.6%95 W · 118 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x924d…6cb9backed Barcząca Esports42c52.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.248252.4%43 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Barcząca Esports22c51.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2348357.1%276 W · 207 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.