TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, PlayTime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$899,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,026,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $899,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2924…0f31backed PlayTime0c419,556$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.2147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime39c95,393$37,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,068.331,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked BetBoom Team70c40,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.9817452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PlayTime32c19,726$6,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,276.9245139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BetBoom Team63c16,856$10,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,301.6715951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked PlayTime21c15,334$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,242.689630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team58c15,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.9928159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed BetBoom Team59c11,270$6,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,654.1731248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PlayTime37c10,440$3,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,828.8296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed PlayTime8c10,192$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.4950832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed BetBoom Team58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked BetBoom Team66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.9910751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team59c9,644$5,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,986.4769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed PlayTime35c8,500$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95412557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PlayTime37c8,500$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,14580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked BetBoom Team58c7,948$4,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.9736041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed BetBoom Team68c7,300$4,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35153764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed BetBoom Team63c7,000$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.9918351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed BetBoom Team70c6,431$4,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.3210051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked PlayTime27c5,256$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.5679859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team66c5,057$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.271,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team67c5,038$3,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.311,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed BetBoom Team61c5,000$3,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.0429042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked BetBoom Team63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.9989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f3d3backed PlayTime34c4,414$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked PlayTime12c3,950$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.850347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed PlayTime14c3,912$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.1225935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PlayTime1c3,700$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked BetBoom Team76c3,500$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed BetBoom Team63c3,398$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.2856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BetBoom Team64c3,300$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.3736248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked BetBoom Team68c3,241$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.9523561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed PlayTime42c3,214$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35050%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed PlayTime24c2,969$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.965930.5%18 W · 41 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed BetBoom Team59c2,960$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.447047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked PlayTime36c2,760$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.5941055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed PlayTime33c2,729$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88861745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked BetBoom Team61c2,690$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.0927143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked PlayTime31c2,689$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed PlayTime26c2,685$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70048954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked PlayTime2c2,672$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2116725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed PlayTime38c2,632$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.8430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed PlayTime13c2,625$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team72c2,592$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.2689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked PlayTime28c2,573$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.521144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked BetBoom Team73c2,341$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.8739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked BetBoom Team61c2,197$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.7743049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed PlayTime8c2,169$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4552046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team61c2,044$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.311,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked BetBoom Team69c2,019$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.313764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked PlayTime37c1,946$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.1961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed PlayTime34c1,874$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.1988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked BetBoom Team58c1,811$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.6141944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team65c1,759$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.191,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed BetBoom Team64c1,750$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63041351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed PlayTime25c1,593$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed BetBoom Team62c1,526$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.3260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed PlayTime37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55549455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed BetBoom Team65c1,361$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.3740051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed BetBoom Team64c1,310$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.635151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BetBoom Team69c1,264$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed BetBoom Team61c1,200$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46831547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed PlayTime26c1,118$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed PlayTime35c1,089$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.1120740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PlayTime15c1,048$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.171,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x835f…5a4fbacked BetBoom Team64c1,042$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked PlayTime8c1,042$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8813647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked BetBoom Team65c1,030$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.3486659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team70c1,023$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.211,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PlayTime18c1,018$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.081,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41b…36bebacked BetBoom Team73c1,010$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.312138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked PlayTime1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024345.3%110 W · 133 L+15.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb417…d931backed BetBoom Team59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4104930.6%15 W · 34 L-6.6wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed PlayTime30c951.73$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed PlayTime42c948.01$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008540%34 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed PlayTime37c850$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31111753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca4…db18backed BetBoom Team59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.461060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked BetBoom Team63c819.99$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.427060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed PlayTime43c814.77$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3509946.5%46 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked PlayTime9c811.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7333845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked BetBoom Team61c808.29$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.2961057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked BetBoom Team62c770.27$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.9225752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked PlayTime28c726.32$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3212452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed PlayTime4c725$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2563032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…9963backed BetBoom Team60c714.75$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed PlayTime30c699.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21029546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked PlayTime38c689.09$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5820452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed PlayTime29c688.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed PlayTime33c679.88$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2531835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed PlayTime27c666.69$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0120145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked PlayTime15c600$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8949644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed BetBoom Team70c540.93$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9322868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed PlayTime38c515.25$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.455850%29 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed PlayTime37c509.61$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5625359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team64c500$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.081,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed PlayTime27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf93…0d84backed BetBoom Team65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1757553.3%40 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed PlayTime42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed PlayTime2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed BetBoom Team58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21051364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.