NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23bedfc1539d73a474d2fba3ab1b6118042fff5808901ab5c5d89c905970c232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 54c | 13,889$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 53c | 13,229$6,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,978.58 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 47c | 12,782$6,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,774.31 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 11,500$5,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,210 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 46c | 4,555$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.7 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 54c | 3,040$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.45 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 2,354$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.06 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 1,673$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.08 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 659.68$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.63 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 398.25$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.09 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Under | 55c | 382.5$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.53 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Under | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Under | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 47c | 118.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 45c | 106.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Over | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…d54abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Over | 48c | 40.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 25.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Seahawks vs. CommandersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.