NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2057f544bebdc7611f8a8628394e379cbe0d1939d190e72b3dfb52bd28e27a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof Seahawks, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Seahawks | 51c | 181,381$93,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,981.88 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Commanders | 48c | 154,182$73,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,539.5 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…2fadbacked Commanders | 49c | 80,287$39,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,335.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Commanders | 49c | 29,478$14,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,444 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Seahawks | 52c | 22,000$11,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,560 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Seahawks | 53c | 18,868$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,867.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Seahawks | 51c | 12,258$6,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,006.25 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d0…f5f6backed Seahawks | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Seahawks | 53c | 8,141$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,826.27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Seahawks | 52c | 8,070$4,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861.38 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Commanders | 48c | 8,066$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,871.88 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…de3ebacked Seahawks | 54c | 7,407$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,407.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Seahawks | 53c | 6,812$3,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,201.64 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Commanders | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Seahawks | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Commanders | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Seahawks | 52c | 3,077$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.92 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Commanders | 48c | 2,961$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.08 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Commanders | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Seahawks | 53c | 1,926$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.29 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Seahawks | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669c…6c54backed Commanders | 48c | 943.75$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc439…1308backed Seahawks | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Seahawks | 54c | 926.99$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.99 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Seahawks | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…9c86backed Seahawks | 52c | 785.86$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.21 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Seahawks | 52c | 731.81$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.27 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Seahawks | 57c | 655$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.59 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Commanders | 45c | 517.3$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Commanders | 46c | 480.91$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.46 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Seahawks | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Seahawks | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 46c | 370.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Seahawks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Seahawks | 55c | 309.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Seahawks | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…130abacked Commanders | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Seahawks | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…d410backed Seahawks | 52c | 275.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…1192backed Seahawks | 54c | 260$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Seahawks | 53c | 250.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Seahawks | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…0af6backed Seahawks | 54c | 240$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Commanders | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Commanders | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Commanders | 40c | 209.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1386…ad63backed Commanders | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Commanders | 48c | 184$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked Seahawks | 52c | 174.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…b707backed Commanders | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Seahawks | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Commanders | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Seahawks | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…edf8backed Seahawks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…fa5ebacked Seahawks | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Seahawks | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Commanders | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de6…b8f0backed Seahawks | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Seahawks | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Commanders | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Seahawks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Seahawks | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Commanders | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Seahawks | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…415fbacked Seahawks | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Seahawks vs. CommandersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 47.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.