NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d611ad5b89b1eaae1eab9bda8a0e06a9feccec0e05d61f3de108a3e2af25380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 66c | 6,989$4,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.29 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,560$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.22 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 45c | 1,550$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.46 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,204$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.84 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…ebbfbacked Over | 54c | 1,167$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 54c | 646$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.99 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 46c | 398.88$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.49 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 315.29$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 55c | 280.17$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 160.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 46c | 150.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 44c | 99.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Seahawks vs. CommandersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 47.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.