NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941dcc6c41666f63ae076d9d7891ac966baed6466879e2021465d9e771faad3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 53,057$25,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,832.26 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 34,402$17,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,704.77 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 51c | 9,873$5,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,838 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Over | 52c | 4,800$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,593$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.48 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Over | 51c | 2,157$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.86 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 1,953$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.44 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c8d0backed Over | 52c | 1,804$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…654abacked Over | 53c | 1,764$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0945…233dbacked Over | 52c | 1,526$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…eab2backed Under | 48c | 1,425$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…2867backed Over | 52c | 1,392$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2aa9backed Over | 52c | 1,389$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ec8ebacked Under | 48c | 1,365$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8938…f7a9backed Under | 48c | 1,355$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…a8b2backed Under | 48c | 1,315$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…6353backed Over | 52c | 1,298$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…1868backed Under | 48c | 1,236$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…b7f6backed Under | 48c | 1,211$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…38c2backed Over | 52c | 1,184$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 50c | 1,116$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 1,075$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.37 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…0af6backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 992.16$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.35 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…96b5backed Over | 52c | 880$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…bdb5backed Under | 48c | 850$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1386…ad63backed Under | 48c | 850$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…e8e6backed Under | 48c | 850$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…15f1backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…7439backed Over | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…130abacked Under | 48c | 750$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 51c | 750$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…2327backed Over | 52c | 705$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…6874backed Under | 48c | 670$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…182fbacked Under | 48c | 648$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…da69backed Under | 48c | 630$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…870bbacked Over | 52c | 630$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…1192backed Over | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…33c0backed Under | 48c | 568$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…50d5backed Under | 48c | 566$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ce…57b9backed Over | 52c | 550$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 50c | 480$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 51c | 470.59$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.59 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…b822backed Over | 49c | 411.76$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Over | 51c | 401.47$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…1a9bbacked Over | 52c | 391$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 365$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 354.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…6ea6backed Over | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 52c | 320$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 50c | 313.3$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.21 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…d8e5backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…d6d2backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Over | 52c | 234$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…d64cbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…407abacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 48c | 172.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 52c | 140.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…cf0cbacked Under | 49c | 75.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…4891backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Under | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Seahawks vs. CommandersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.